By: Abram Girgis

April 2018 - Toronto Housing Market Recovery

Tags: Toronto Housing Market, Toronto Real Estate, Toronto Real Estate Market Recovery

The "crash" occured overnight. 
April 19th 2017

I had a feeling it was coming. I was seeing the indicators in Feb 2017... Compared it to the 2008 crash and was now certain it was coming... 

But not like this.. 

Since April 2017, clients, friends, and family have been asking me of my opinion and outlook for the upcoming months.

Here it is for everyone:

The study of economics will at its basics analyze supply vs demand.. That is in real estate, the number of houses available for sale vs the number of houses actually being sold...

There is an invisible hand at play though, and this is usually what decides the final price of an item (or house). Some might call it psychology and I agree, but the news, media, and government regulation is a LARGE contributor to periodic market corrections such as this most recent "crash".

As of early 2017, this invisible hand created a bubble in the market, and had crazed buyers running around overasking on any property in any condition. But, as of the "crash", we can see this is no longer the case and far from it. 

EVERYONE is on a wait and see basis. Buyers AND Sellers. 
Therefore, it is not a buyers market nor is it a sellers market.
When does it all get better?

Lets play on psychology of buyers and sellers then. 
At the current moment a buyer is thinking "I'm not gonna buy a house right now, even though I can afford the mortgage, because its probably just gonna keep losing value! I'll wait for it to get even lower"
A seller is thinking, "I'll definitely try listing it, but if I don't get the $7 million I want, I will just terminate the listing, and list maybe next month when the value is not $500,000." (lol)

So, as a i tell everyone, it is a STAGNANT market, which has not yet realized the crash... 
We will definitely see an increase in price, transactions, and decrease in inventory by the beginning of May. 

This is because the crash occured end of April, mainly May 2017. Which means that in MAY 2018 , we will analyze fairly positive numbers Year-Over-Year. This is a mathematical inevitability. (considering how bad people still want to buy, and how desperate they are to sell) 

Once people begin to see the numbers increasing (as opposed to the last year of constant decreasing) we will ENTER INTO THE BUYERS MARKET. Prices will regularly increase, active listings will regularly decrease, Days on the market will decrease, and Toronto will enter into another BULLISH real estate market, open for investments and profits.

For those impatient sellers --> Your house will reach April 2017 numbers around the year 2025.

Abram Girgis, Salesperson
Century 21 - Leading Edge Realty Inc.

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